ver since June 24, 2022, when the Supreme Court issued a ruling overturning the right to abortion, people have been trying to predict its impact on the upcoming midterm elections. Polling data offer some clues; Gallup found that the number of Americans identifying themselves as pro-choice rose to a near record high in the aftermath of the Court’s decision.
But trying to determine whether the abortion decision will affect voters’ decisions about individual candidates is pretty complicated. Throughout this year the big issues driving the election have included not just abortion but also inflation, gun control, and now, according to a recent NBC poll, “threats to democracy.”
The polls offer no clear picture of what might happen in head-to-head races between Democrats and Republicans in November.
This year’s elections have been mostly party primaries which also offer no clue as to how the abortion issue might affect the midterms. The two parties are so very clearly divided on this issue, that almost all the Republican candidates are in favor of the Court’s decision and almost all the Democratic candidates are against it. However, in the months since the Supreme Court’s decision, we have had four special elections which pit Democrats against Republicans. In Minnesota’s 1st congressional district (MN-01), a special election was called to fill the vacancy created by the death of U.S. Rep. Jim Hagedorn. In Nebraska’s 1st congressional district (NE-01), the seat became vacant after the resignation of incumbent Republican Rep. Jeff Fortenberry who was indicted on campaign finance charges. In New York’s 19th congressional district (NY-19), a vacancy was created by the resignation of Democrat Antonio Delgado, who became New York’s lieutenant governor. And in New York’s 23rd congressional district (NY-23), the Republican Tom Reed resigned after sexual harassment allegations.