That \u201cpopulation boom\u201d<\/a> has been centered in the south, with North Carolina set to gain an additional congressional district, Florida likely to have two additional seats with as many as three in Texas. \u201cRepublicans control the legislatures in those states, leaving them with near total say over what those new districts will look like \u2014 a sharp contrast to other parts of the country where state governments are either divided or where nonpartisan commissions are tasked with redrawing Congressional and state legislative lines.\u201d Currently, Democrats have just a one seat majority with five vacant seats, so those six new districts could be a majority-maker for Team Red.<\/p>\n\n\n\nIn the five months that have passed since the election, GOP state legislators have introduced at least 253 bills restricting various voting rights in 43 states,\u00a0according to the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU. These lawmakers are taking advantage of the perception held by a large majority of Republican voters who believe that 2020 was not a legitimate election.\u00a0According to polling from Quinnipiac\u00a0in the weeks following the election, 77 percent of Republicans believe that there was widespread voter fraud, due in large part to Trump\u2019s \u201cbig lie.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Texas alone, \u201cmore than two dozen GOP-sponsored elections bills are under consideration\u00a0in the legislature as lawmakers seek to tighten ID requirements and voter rolls, limit early voting and up the penalties for errors.\u201d Many of those bills would limit early voting, particularly in urban, Democrat-rich vote areas. With all of these potential roadblocks for voting in 2022, Democrats have focused their attention on HR 1 \u2013 the \u201cFor the People Act\u201d that recently passed the House of Representatives. The legislation would mandate two weeks of early voting, no excuse absentee mail voting and automatic voter registration in every state,\u00a0but it faces an uphill battle in the Senate with committee hearings slated to begin on March 24. If Democrats fail in their attempts to pass HR1 or similar voting rights legislation, GOP-backed efforts on the state level will certainly have an outsized effect on midterm election turnout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Included in the \u201cFor the People Act\u201d are efforts to also curtail the outsized role of \u201cdark money\u201d groups by requiring them to \u201cdisclose political donations over a certain amount.\u201d Outside spending will always have an effect on campaigns and races, but more troubling for the GOP is the decision by many leading corporate PACs to either suspend or scale back their political giving in the wake of the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol. Over the past two cycles, Corporate PACs have fueled House and Senate candidates\u2019 coffers, with the\u00a0majority of funds going to GOP members. Over the past decade, Democrats have built an impressive grassroots donation program that has powered both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and its counterpart in the senate, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Republicans have built similarly strong operations, but still rely more on corporate campaign donations and PACs, which have seen a drop of 98 percent in political giving in\u00a0January 2021 as compared to January 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s a collision of factors likely to tilt the scales in the GOP\u2019s favor with dramatic impact: Experts note the new maps in the South alone could knock Democrats out of power in the U.S. House next year \u2014 and perhaps well beyond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite losing the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives in 2020, Team Red had a banner year in terms of recruitment, nearly toppling Team Blue\u2019s majority in the lower chamber. Last cycle, the House GOP conference saw the number of women members in their ranks more than double in a single election.\u00a0As Politico noted the day after the election, \u201cfemale GOP candidates won in some of the toughest races in the country and have been responsible for flipping six of seven Democratic seats thus far.\u201d\u00a0The authors go on to note that, \u201cRepublicans say the success of GOP women in key swing districts should serve as a roadmap for how to win back the House in 2022. Under President\u00a0Donald Trump, the party\u2019s standing has suffered in the suburbs. But the GOP now sees a recipe for success in these areas, although those same Republican women could face competitive reelection races in the next midterms.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Lastly, more than any other variable, the state of the economy will likely have the most outsized impact on GOP hopes for the midterms.\u00a0In the latest CBS News\/YouGov poll, \u201c60 percent of U.S. adults support President Joe Biden\u2019s handling of the economy and the coronavirus.\u201d Two years is an eternity in the life of a country, especially when it came to the totality of COVID-19\u2019s effect on every aspect of our economy. This past week,\u00a0the Federal Reserve released the following positive forecast for the economy:\u00a0\u201cThe Federal Reserve expects the U.S. economy to grow at its fastest pace in four decades this year as the unemployment rate falls to 4.5 percent \u2026 and then ticks down closer to pre-pandemic levels \u2014 3.9 percent in 2022 and 3.5 percent in 2023. GDP growth [will] reach 6.5 percent this year,up from its previous projection of 4.2 percent.\u201d If the Federal Reserve\u2019s rosy predictions pan out over the next few months and years, Democrats will be in a strong position to campaign on the state of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At this point, nearly 600 days out from the 2022 elections, historic midterm trends, redistricting opportunities and recruitment efforts that mirror 2020, could all power a very strong election for Team Red.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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