Interpretation of Forecasts of New Cases
- Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance over time, but even the ensemble forecasts do not reliably predict rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. They should not be relied upon for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends.
- More reported cases than expected have fallen outside the forecast prediction intervals for 3- and 4-week ahead case forecasts. Case forecasts at those horizons and assessments of likely increases or decreases will not be shown until sustained improvements in performance are observed.
- This week’s national ensemble predicts 433,000 to 969,000 new cases are likely to be reported in the week ending December 4, 2021.
- The figure shows the number of new COVID-19 cases reported in the United States each week from September 18 through November 20 and forecasted new cases over the next 2 weeks, through December 4.
- This week, ensemble forecasts of new reported COVID-19 cases included forecasts from 21 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for at least one jurisdiction.
- Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details on the assumptions and methods used to produce the forecasts.
wishing you the best and very very happy holidays
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